Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

MINISTRY OF LEGAL AFFAIRS
Consumer Affairs Division

REPORT ON THE PRICE MOVEMENTS OF
BASIC SUPERMARKET ITEMS, MARKET ITEMS AND POULTRY
FOR AUGUST 2008

1.  INTRODUCTION

This report analyzes the monthly movement in the retail price of selected supermarket items, market items (fruits, vegetables, meats and fish) and live poultry in Trinidad for August 2008.
 
The analysis is based on data collected by the Research and Project Management Unit of the Consumers Affairs Division (RPMU).

1. SUPERMARKET ITEMS – TRINIDAD

A basket of goods comprising a total of one hundred and sixty-five (165) items were surveyed at supermarkets across Trinidad in the month of August by Officers of RPMU. A summary of the findings of the survey are presented in Table 1, Appendix 1.

2.1   Survey Findings: August 2008.

Price data was unavailable for four (4) of the items in the basket. Notwithstanding this, the following price movements were evident:

2.1.1   All Items:
a.         Overall, the month of August witnessed an average increase of 2.19% in the price of basic supermarket items from that of the previous month – July 2008;

b.         This 2.19% increase was brought on as a result of an increase across the board in the average price of all the item groupings surveyed, that is Meat, Fish, Dairy Products, Non – Alcoholic beverages, Oils and Fats, Cereals, Legumes, Condiments and Sauces, Tuber and Similar Produce, Sweeteners, Juices and Preparations for Infant Use, Dried Fruits and Toiletries and Cleaning Products

c.         This increase represents 0.54 percentage points more than the increase recorded over the period June to July 2008. 

2.1.2.  Item Groupings:
a.         Of the thirteen (13) item groupings, Tuber and Similar Produce, Cereals and Oils and Fats, showed significant gains overall and posted price increases of 16.16%, 2.15%, and 1.92% respectively.  (Table 1 refers).

2.1.3   Individual Items:
a.         Overall, the selected basket of food items surveyed showed more price increases than decreases during the month of August as prices of:

1. 106 or 64.3% of the items in the basket increased
2. 40 or 24.2% decreased; and
3. 15 or 9.1% remained unchanged

Price Increases -
a.         In terms of price increases, such movements ranged from as low as 0.04% or ($0.02) on Infant Formula Klim (900g) to as high as 30.89% or ($0.76) on Irish Potatoes (454g); 
b.         By actual dollar value, Ghee (2lbs) recorded the highest increase followed by Corn Oil (1.42L)) as the price rose by $2.93 and $1.89 respectively;

1. Among the items which showed notable percentage price increases were:

Price Decreases -
a.         In terms of price decreases, such movements ranged from 0.10% or $0.02 for Coffee- Hong Wing (385g) to 12.57% or $2.30 for Goat Shoulder (454g);
b.         By actual dollar value, consumers were able to save the most on the purchase of Goat Shoulder as prices fell by $2.30 per 454g;
c.         Among the items which showed notable percentage price decreases were:

2.2    Factors Influencing Price Movements – August 2008.

a.         The overall increase of 2.19% on the retail prices of the selected supermarket items during the period July to August 2008 was in a large measure due to increases in the price of tuber and similar produce, cereals and oils and fats.

b.         With respect to Tuber and Similar Produce, items  such as irish potatoes, garlic and onion have only recently started showing evidence of significant increases in price. Camacho Brothers and Company, one of the leading local distributors for Irish potatoes, garlic and onion informed that these price increases are not unusual at this time of the year owing to the fact that it is the end of the crop in Canada and the USA. Other local distributors while alluding to this explanation also attributed these price increases to the unusually heavy rainfall in both Canada and the USA which have delayed the start of the harvesting period.

c.         Cereal and Oils and Fats, on the other hand, have been on a continual increase as a result of several inter-related factors, namely  

• Increasing demand for all food by India and China.  
• Production shortfalls in food as a result of adverse weather conditions.
• Government imposed restrictions or bans on exports of oils.

3.0       MARKET SURVEY - TRINIDAD

A total of twenty nine (29) market items comprising fruits, vegetables, meats and fish were surveyed at Municipal markets across Trinidad on the last weekend of the month of August 2008. This was done so as to obtain the prevailing price of each of the items under review. A summary of the findings of the survey are presented in Table 2, Appendix 1.

1. Survey Findings: July to August 2008.

Prices were obtained for all twenty nine (29) market items during the period under review and the following price movements were evident:

1. All Items:

a.         Overall, market prices increased by only 0.46% as opposed to the drastic increase of 28.66% recorded for the month - July.

b.         Driving this increase was the price of meat and fish which increased by 4.81%. Vegetable prices, amidst much expectation of further price increases (from July) due to continuous heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding in several agricultural farming districts, fell by 0.24% during the period under review. 
.

1. Item Groupings:

a.         Overall, the prices of Vegetables decreased slightly by 0.24% in August from that of July, while the price of Meat and Fish showed an upward movement of 4.81%.

1. Individual Items:

a.         The period July to August 2008, witnessed almost an equal amount of price increases as decreases. In all,

1. 15 or 51.7% of the items increased; while
2. 14 or 48.3% of the items decreased.

Price Increases -
a.         In terms of price increases, such movements ranged from as low as 0.18% or $0.01 on Plantain (454g) to as high as 21.11% or $2.17 on Tomatoes – medium (454g);

b.         By actual dollar value, Fish Carite and Tomatoes – medium registered the highest increase as prices rose by $2.83 and $2.17 per 454g respectively;
c.         Among the items constituting the Fish and Meat grouping, only Fish Carite from the Fish items and Beef of the Meat items showed evidence of a price increase, rising by 19.02% and 1.19% respectively.

c.         The following are the items which showed evidence of significant increases in price during the period under review.

Price Decreases -
a.         In terms of price decreases, movements ranged from as little as 0.37% or $0.02 for Sweet Potato (454g) to 23.01% or $1.53 for Bodi (bundle)

b.         By actual dollar value, consumers were able to save the most - $1.95 per 454g in the purchase of Sweet Pepper and $1.53 per bundle on Bodi.

1. Factors Influencing Price Movements during August 2008.
1. Despite heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding in several agricultural farming districts throughout Trinidad, overall prices increased by only 0.46% from July to August 2008.

b.         Based on reports carried in NAMDEVCO’s Market Watch, these increases were due to reduced volumes of produce coming on the market as a result of heavy rainfall and flooding in several main agricultural districts.

c.         At the same time, Lettuce showed a decline in price from the previous month. It is believed that this item was sold at reduced prices for fear that supplies would remain given that this item is known to be affected by flood waters.

1. POULTRY  SURVEY – TRINIDAD

Table 3 analyses the movement in the average price per pound and the pluck and gut fee for live chicken for the month of August 2008. On the basis of the data presented, the following price movements were evident:

4.1       SURVEY FINDINGS – July 2008
4.1.1   Price per pound – Live Chicken:
a.         Chicken prices increased by 37.05% in August 2008 with an average price of $6.03 per pound being recorded. (Table 3 refers)
 

1. Pluck and Gut Fee:

a.         Overall, the average pluck and gut fee for the month of August increased by 2.82% from that of July 2008, an increase of $0.23 per chicken. This percentage increase was less than that recorded from June to July when the fee increased by 3.03%.

4.2    Factors influencing movements in the price of live chicken:
a.         According to reports from the industry, the increase by 37.05% in the price of live chicken is as a result of the return to normalcy in the production of birds and a depletion of the excess supply in production that existed for several weeks over the period May to June 2008. It is further acknowledged that the current prevailing price (averaging $6.03) is evidence that chicken prices have returned to its normal level of $5.00 to $6.00 per pound.

b.         An interesting and emerging trend is the declining rate of increase in August of the associated pluck and gut fee.

5.0       SAMPLE MONTHLY FOOD BASKET

Table 4 compares the change in the cost of a sample food basket for a family of four (4) over the period July to August 2008. The values are computed on the premise that the family maintained the same purchases throughout the period under review.

5.1    Results:

1. Overall, there was an increase of 2.7% or $63.73 in the cost of the sample food basket from July to August 2008. In July, the total cost was  $2264.90 as compared to $2328.63 in August 2008; and

1.      Notable price increases were recorded for key food items: Tomatoes medium (454g) – 21.1%, Garlic (454g) – 9.1% and Onion (454g) – 8.5%.

6.0             CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION:

The month of August 2008 showed evidence of continual price increases at the level of the supermarket. At the municipal markets, prices showed a slight incline from the previous reporting period as a result of continued heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding in several agricultural farming districts throughout Trinidad.  Expectations on a return to “normal price” for live chicken were realized as prices averaged $6.03 per pound. Given the current emerging trend of a decreasing rate of increase in the associated pluck and gut fee, it is recommended that close monitoring be undertaken to determine if the fee will decline as prices seem set to stabilize in the normal range of $5.00 to $6.00. 

Research & Project Management Unit (R&PMU)